We sat down with Robert Stolt Associate Partner, Porsche Consulting GmbH to find out his predictions for mobility in 2023.
Electrification and charging in 2023
”In Pursuit of Scale EV market predictions have seen substantial upward revisions in recent months, with some sources like Bloomberg now projecting that 52% of all new vehicles sold globally by 2030 will be EVs (previously this number has ranged from 30 to 45%). Global government mandates and incentive packages like the US Inflation Reduction Act or purchase incentives in the EU are accelerating the EV adoption rate. This means that demand for EV batteries will also increase dramatically, and global lithium-ion battery production capacity is now projected to be as high as 8 Terawatt-Hours by 2030, up from less than 2 TWh today.”
The role of China
”A key provision of the US Inflation Reduction Act will force automakers to move away from relying on China for its battery supply chain; raw materials and components sourced from China will disqualify an automaker from receiving the $7500 combined tax credit. This is already creating a gold rush for North America- based material sourcing and component production; new plant announcements in the US and Canada will be very frequent throughout 2023 and 2024. The US Southeast is emerging as the epicenter of battery production (“the battery belt”), while Canada will become one of the foremost sources of raw materials—due to its vast reserves of lithium, graphite, cobalt and nickel, and its free-trade agreement with the US. In Europe, supply problems of EVs are on the mend, but not yet back to normal. Chinese OEMs are continuing to seize the momentum in 2023 with new brands, models as well as market entries and expansions. For example, BYD will launch a new “professional and personal” electric car brand in the first quarter and Nio plans to release five new models by summer 2023.”
”Mercedes, Porsche and Rivian all announced that they will build their own charging network to provide users with faster charging speed and greater convenience. Tesla, Nio, Audi and others already paved the way for the OEM charging networks, each with their individual characteristics. Tesla, Audi and Mercedes open their networks to the public, while Rivian will limit it to its base of owners. In all cases, providing a premium experience is cited as one of the driving reasons, indicating a future potential area of differentiation for OEMs. The charging stations may have additional amenities, like a café, a restaurant, or a work lounge – helping owners reclaim some of the time spent charging and making EVs more palatable to a wider audience. Also, we can see charging networks in other mobility sectors like the marine industry being built up (e.g. by companies such as UK-based Aqua Superpower), maybe even with some dual use cases to charge boats and cars, as they use the same plug and technology.”
Explore more predictions
You can explore more predictions from global thought leaders and visionaries who are shaping the future of mobility, liveable cities and sustainable Transport in our Global Thought Leaders Predictions for Mobility 2023 report.